India's silent Crisis: Rising temperatures and unequal resilience

Even with temperatures falling after a dust storm and rainfall on Wednesday evening, Delhi's daytime temperatures had been high, crossing 40° C in some areas. High humidity levels made it 'feel like' 50° C. Wednesday also recorded the highest minimum temperature of the season so far, at 30.2° C - 3.5° C above normal. However, meteorologists have heaved a sigh of relief, as the neutral El   Nino effect has kept this year cooler than the last two, and raised hopes of a higher-than-normal monsoon.

But long-term trends are worrisome. A   Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) report released on Tuesday, 'How Extreme Heat is Impacting India: Assessing District-level Heat Risk', indicates an increase in warm days and warm nights in 1/4th and nearly 3/4th of India, respectively, over the past decade. This is complemented by a rise in relative humidity in north and central India.

Heat is a slow-onset disaster, which can cause depopulation and render entire regions uninhabitable. At a granular level, heat impacts occupational safety and health (OSH). Risk is high in labour-intensive sectors such as street-vending, home delivery, construction and micro-transport.

There is also a built-in heat inequity, as the better-off can organise cooling, while others have no option but to work in the heat or lose a day's wage. So, long-term strategies to mitigate heat risk are essential:

Insurance cover
There are sporadic instances of heatwave insurance by collectives, which, when combined with parametric payouts, can compensate for a few days of work lost to an extreme heat spell. Yet, such solutions are not mainstreamed. Heat mitigation must be integrated into workspaces - at offices, shop floors, and for those with outdoor jobs.

Cooling solutions
Active cooling can consist of fans, coolers, ACs, some innovative tech like self-cooling work clothes and interior mist-emitters. Most of these are expensive and may never be scaled. Passive cooling solutions - window shades, ventilation, green cover, cool roofs, earthen pots for cool water, headgear and staying hydrated - are cheaper and scalable.

Resilience in response
Health services are overburdened each summer with fires in urban agglomerations, especially in hospitals, because they are energy and oxygen rich. Hence, proper construction, heat-mitigation measures and management plans are critical. Besides, other public infra may be impacted due to glacial melt and floods. There's need to build resilience at every step of planning and construction.

Data for planning
India Meteorological Department (IMD) is working on perfecting impact-based forecasting as a part of its heatwave forecast supercomputer models, which factor in maximum and minimum temperatures, humidity, wind, and persistence of heat. To improve measurement of heat stress, analysts can overlay these five felt-heat parameters with exposure (population density) and vulnerability (socioeconomic status, built structures, urban heat island, or UHI, impact).

Also, AI-based analysis of data can predict and mitigate altered nature of frequency, duration and intensity (FDI) of a hot day leading to FDI of a warm night, or that of a warm night leading to a hot day, and similar assessments over heat spells, seasons, regions and years. Deeper analysis of heat data will help policymakers plan better.

Work the plan
Heat action plans (HAPs) have witnessed a successful roll-out in several urban areas and provide a micro-review of heat hotspots in a city. To be effective, HAPs must be owned by local governments, must dovetail into existing national/sub-national social, environmental and infrastructure development programmes, and be written clearly in vernacular language.

Collaboration among government departments (city, forest, water, etc) at the district level is critical. One-fourth of GoI's 72 schemes are amenable to incorporating heat mitigation as a core construct, by adding shades to buildings, providing for rainwater harvesting and ensuring water supply. For hyper-local assessments down to the ward/sub-municipal levels, sensors could be deployed in installing automated monitoring stations.

A glaring gap in heat mitigation is absence of authoritative documentation on urban forestry. Local governments can also build economic incentives for citizens (in gas/electricity bills) to encourage the adoption of heat-mitigating solutions such as urban greening, roof gardens, solar roofs and in-house RWA/building waste management.

National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and home ministry are finalising a 'National Framework for Heatwave Mitigation and Management' based on key principles of decentralisation, community participation, flexible solutions, collaborative implementation, multi-sectoral focus and future preparedness. It's time we seriously considered heat's impact not just on the environment but also on citizens, and strengthen their coping mechanisms, especially for the most vulnerable.

Rizvi is adviser, NDMA, and Ahuja isformer secretary, Department ofChemicals and Fertilisers, GoI



(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com)