President Donald Trump declared on Wedensday that the United States would begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Russia and China. If the Pentagon goes ahead with tests it would mark a break with more than three decades of US restraint that had served as one of the world’s most significant stabilising factor since the Cold War.
Right before meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, Trump wrote on social media that he had directed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, triggering uncertainty over the decades-old U.S. moratorium on such tests. Trump said the U.S. will test nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Russia and China but none of the three countries has tested live nuclear weapons since the 1990s. Russia held nuclear drills last week and has tested a nuclear-powered cruise missile and a nuclear-powered torpedo but has not tested a nuclear warhead. When asked later about his remarks on nuclear weapons testing, Trump suggested that they were not related to China. “It had to do with others,” he said, without naming any countries. “They seem to all be nuclear testing.”
Since the last American nuclear test in 1992, all major powers have abided by the moratorium on live nuclear explosions. The 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) enshrined that understanding, prohibiting all nuclear detonations by everyone, everywhere. Although the treaty has not entered into force due to lack of U.S. ratification, it has been a cornerstone of the international arms control architecture.
Trump’s directive to restart testing undermines this fragile consensus. It signals to other nuclear powers that the restraint that once held the system together may no longer apply. Even if the stated intent is to ensure parity with Russia and China, it conveys the world’s leading nuclear power is once again willing to test its arsenal in defiance of global norms.
The return of the Cold War nuke race
Trump’s move could easily trigger a cascade of reactions eerily reminiscent of the Cold War era. For decades, nuclear tests were not just technical exercises but also geopolitical statements of strength, deterrence and defiance. Once the United States crosses the line back into live testing, Russia is almost certain to follow suit, as President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly warned. China, wary of falling behind in strategic parity, would likely respond as well.
From there, the domino effect could reach South Asia, where India and Pakistan, both outside the CTBT, might seize the moment to validate or upgrade their arsenals. A new round of testing across multiple continents would resurrect the nuclear arms race that the CTBT was designed to suppress.
Unlike the bipolar Cold War, today’s international order is multipolar and volatile. Nuclear rivalry now intersects with technological, territorial, and ideological competitions. In this context, renewed nuclear testing could ignite broader instability, undermining fragile deterrence balances.
Moreover, modern nuclear weapons are vastly more sophisticated than those tested during the 20th century. Testing them could blur the line between deterrence and preparation for deployment of new, more destabilising weapons such as tactical nukes or hypersonic nuclear systems. Once the taboo against testing is broken, verification and arms control frameworks will erode, leaving fewer tools to monitor and limit nuclear escalation.
Beyond geopolitics, renewed nuclear testing would reopen a tragic chapter of environmental destruction and human suffering. During the Cold War, nuclear tests scarred vast stretches of land from the Nevada desert and the Kazakh steppes to the Marshall Islands and French Polynesia. Radioactive contamination poisoned ecosystems and generations of people, many of whom still suffer health effects.
A new round of tests, whether underground or atmospheric, would repeat those mistakes. Even underground tests risk groundwater contamination and seismic instability. The idea that any country would willingly revive such practices in 2025, despite decades of evidence of their harm, marks a step backward for global environmental and humanitarian responsibility.
Erosion of global arms control
Trump’s announcement also undermines what remains of the international arms control system. The withdrawal of the U.S. from the INF Treaty, Russia’s suspension of New START inspections, and Putin’s 2023 revocation of Russia’s CTBT ratification had already weakened the structure. The resumption of nuclear testing could destroy what’s left of mutual trust between nuclear powers.
If the U.S. resumes testing, Russia and China will feel justified in expanding their own programmes. In turn, non-nuclear states may lose faith in the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which relies on the promise that nuclear powers are committed to eventual disarmament. A collapse of that trust could lead to further nuclear proliferation, a nightmare scenario in an already unstable world.
For decades, restraint and verification held the nuclear genie inside the bottle. Trump’s decision risks shattering that containment, unleashing forces that diplomacy may struggle to rein in. Once nuclear detonations begin again, global arms control may be impossible to reconstruct. Trump's decision can not only lead to proliferation of nuclear arms but will bring bcak the mindset that once brought the world to the brink of annihilation.
However, Trump being Trump, his comment may actually turn out to be unintended or misspoken. Since Trump's comment is seen to be provoked by Russia's recent tests of nuclear-capable wepaons, there is a chance that Trump actually wanted to speak of testing nuclear-capable weapons but ended up saying nuclear wepaons.
Right before meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, Trump wrote on social media that he had directed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, triggering uncertainty over the decades-old U.S. moratorium on such tests. Trump said the U.S. will test nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Russia and China but none of the three countries has tested live nuclear weapons since the 1990s. Russia held nuclear drills last week and has tested a nuclear-powered cruise missile and a nuclear-powered torpedo but has not tested a nuclear warhead. When asked later about his remarks on nuclear weapons testing, Trump suggested that they were not related to China. “It had to do with others,” he said, without naming any countries. “They seem to all be nuclear testing.”
Since the last American nuclear test in 1992, all major powers have abided by the moratorium on live nuclear explosions. The 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) enshrined that understanding, prohibiting all nuclear detonations by everyone, everywhere. Although the treaty has not entered into force due to lack of U.S. ratification, it has been a cornerstone of the international arms control architecture.
Trump’s directive to restart testing undermines this fragile consensus. It signals to other nuclear powers that the restraint that once held the system together may no longer apply. Even if the stated intent is to ensure parity with Russia and China, it conveys the world’s leading nuclear power is once again willing to test its arsenal in defiance of global norms.
The return of the Cold War nuke race
Trump’s move could easily trigger a cascade of reactions eerily reminiscent of the Cold War era. For decades, nuclear tests were not just technical exercises but also geopolitical statements of strength, deterrence and defiance. Once the United States crosses the line back into live testing, Russia is almost certain to follow suit, as President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly warned. China, wary of falling behind in strategic parity, would likely respond as well.
From there, the domino effect could reach South Asia, where India and Pakistan, both outside the CTBT, might seize the moment to validate or upgrade their arsenals. A new round of testing across multiple continents would resurrect the nuclear arms race that the CTBT was designed to suppress.
Unlike the bipolar Cold War, today’s international order is multipolar and volatile. Nuclear rivalry now intersects with technological, territorial, and ideological competitions. In this context, renewed nuclear testing could ignite broader instability, undermining fragile deterrence balances.
Moreover, modern nuclear weapons are vastly more sophisticated than those tested during the 20th century. Testing them could blur the line between deterrence and preparation for deployment of new, more destabilising weapons such as tactical nukes or hypersonic nuclear systems. Once the taboo against testing is broken, verification and arms control frameworks will erode, leaving fewer tools to monitor and limit nuclear escalation.
Beyond geopolitics, renewed nuclear testing would reopen a tragic chapter of environmental destruction and human suffering. During the Cold War, nuclear tests scarred vast stretches of land from the Nevada desert and the Kazakh steppes to the Marshall Islands and French Polynesia. Radioactive contamination poisoned ecosystems and generations of people, many of whom still suffer health effects.
A new round of tests, whether underground or atmospheric, would repeat those mistakes. Even underground tests risk groundwater contamination and seismic instability. The idea that any country would willingly revive such practices in 2025, despite decades of evidence of their harm, marks a step backward for global environmental and humanitarian responsibility.
Erosion of global arms control
Trump’s announcement also undermines what remains of the international arms control system. The withdrawal of the U.S. from the INF Treaty, Russia’s suspension of New START inspections, and Putin’s 2023 revocation of Russia’s CTBT ratification had already weakened the structure. The resumption of nuclear testing could destroy what’s left of mutual trust between nuclear powers.
If the U.S. resumes testing, Russia and China will feel justified in expanding their own programmes. In turn, non-nuclear states may lose faith in the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which relies on the promise that nuclear powers are committed to eventual disarmament. A collapse of that trust could lead to further nuclear proliferation, a nightmare scenario in an already unstable world.
For decades, restraint and verification held the nuclear genie inside the bottle. Trump’s decision risks shattering that containment, unleashing forces that diplomacy may struggle to rein in. Once nuclear detonations begin again, global arms control may be impossible to reconstruct. Trump's decision can not only lead to proliferation of nuclear arms but will bring bcak the mindset that once brought the world to the brink of annihilation.
However, Trump being Trump, his comment may actually turn out to be unintended or misspoken. Since Trump's comment is seen to be provoked by Russia's recent tests of nuclear-capable wepaons, there is a chance that Trump actually wanted to speak of testing nuclear-capable weapons but ended up saying nuclear wepaons.
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