NEW DELHI: Indian cities will require over $2.4 trillion in investments by 2050 to build resilient and low-carbon infrastructure, as they become increasingly vulnerable to heatwaves, urban flooding, and other climate-related risks, according to a new World Bank report released Tuesday.
The report, ‘Towards Resilient and Prosperous Cities in India’, prepared in partnership with the ministry of housing and urban affairs, warns that economic losses from climate events are set to rise dramatically if cities fail to act urgently.
“Annual economic losses from rain-related flooding are currently estimated at $4 billion. These are projected to rise to $5 billion by 2030 and could surge to between $14 billion and $30 billion by 2070 if no remedial action is taken,” the report says.
Among the worst-affected cities are Delhi, Chennai, Surat and Lucknow, which the report identifies as being most exposed to urban heat island effects and flood risks, largely due to rapid, unregulated expansion into ecologically vulnerable zones.
In Delhi, heat stress is expected to intensify significantly. Between 1983 and 2016, exposure to dangerous heat levels in India’s 10 largest cities increased by 71%, rising from 4.3 billion to 10.1 billion person-hours per year.
"If emissions continue at current levels, annual heat-related deaths may rise from 1,44,000 to over 3,28,000 by 2050. Around 20% of working hours in major Indian cities could be lost due to high heat stress conditions," the report says, as per news agency PTI.
The World Bank estimates that an investment of $150 billion over the next 15 years could help 60% of existing Indian cities implement effective flood mitigation measures . Heat mitigation alone, it adds, could increase India’s GDP by up to 0.4% and save as many as 130,000 lives annually by 2050.
Calling for urgent fiscal recalibration, the report warns that current urban infrastructure spending, at just 0.7% of GDP, is “much lower than other countries” and must increase substantially.
Between 2011 and 2018, India’s average annual spending stood at $10.6 billion, a fraction of what will be needed in the decades ahead.
"This is both a challenge and an opportunity," said Auguste Tano Kouame, World Bank Country Director for India, as quoted by PTI. "Without timely action, climate risks such as flooding and extreme heat will become much more severe."
The report also notes that India’s urban population stood at 480 million in 2020 and is expected to double to over 1.1 billion by 2070. "More than 144 million new urban homes will be required, doubling the current housing stock,” it states.
Hence, to mitigate these risks, the World Bank estimates that India will need to invest $2.4 trillion by 2050 and $10.9 trillion by 2070 across sectors such as housing, public transport, solid waste management, and municipal services.
To close the massive infrastructure gap, the report urges tapping into private capital through mechanisms such as green bonds, blended finance, and access to international climate funds. It also calls for greater financial autonomy for urban local bodies and improved project planning capacities to attract such investments.
The findings come just months before COP30, the global climate summit, where countries are expected to present updated national climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
As per PTI, while only 25 nations, representing just 20% of global emissions, have submitted their NDCs so far, India’s plan will be key to testing its climate leadership and sustaining the goals of the Paris Agreement.
The report, ‘Towards Resilient and Prosperous Cities in India’, prepared in partnership with the ministry of housing and urban affairs, warns that economic losses from climate events are set to rise dramatically if cities fail to act urgently.
“Annual economic losses from rain-related flooding are currently estimated at $4 billion. These are projected to rise to $5 billion by 2030 and could surge to between $14 billion and $30 billion by 2070 if no remedial action is taken,” the report says.
Among the worst-affected cities are Delhi, Chennai, Surat and Lucknow, which the report identifies as being most exposed to urban heat island effects and flood risks, largely due to rapid, unregulated expansion into ecologically vulnerable zones.
In Delhi, heat stress is expected to intensify significantly. Between 1983 and 2016, exposure to dangerous heat levels in India’s 10 largest cities increased by 71%, rising from 4.3 billion to 10.1 billion person-hours per year.
"If emissions continue at current levels, annual heat-related deaths may rise from 1,44,000 to over 3,28,000 by 2050. Around 20% of working hours in major Indian cities could be lost due to high heat stress conditions," the report says, as per news agency PTI.
The World Bank estimates that an investment of $150 billion over the next 15 years could help 60% of existing Indian cities implement effective flood mitigation measures . Heat mitigation alone, it adds, could increase India’s GDP by up to 0.4% and save as many as 130,000 lives annually by 2050.
Calling for urgent fiscal recalibration, the report warns that current urban infrastructure spending, at just 0.7% of GDP, is “much lower than other countries” and must increase substantially.
Between 2011 and 2018, India’s average annual spending stood at $10.6 billion, a fraction of what will be needed in the decades ahead.
"This is both a challenge and an opportunity," said Auguste Tano Kouame, World Bank Country Director for India, as quoted by PTI. "Without timely action, climate risks such as flooding and extreme heat will become much more severe."
The report also notes that India’s urban population stood at 480 million in 2020 and is expected to double to over 1.1 billion by 2070. "More than 144 million new urban homes will be required, doubling the current housing stock,” it states.
Hence, to mitigate these risks, the World Bank estimates that India will need to invest $2.4 trillion by 2050 and $10.9 trillion by 2070 across sectors such as housing, public transport, solid waste management, and municipal services.
To close the massive infrastructure gap, the report urges tapping into private capital through mechanisms such as green bonds, blended finance, and access to international climate funds. It also calls for greater financial autonomy for urban local bodies and improved project planning capacities to attract such investments.
The findings come just months before COP30, the global climate summit, where countries are expected to present updated national climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
As per PTI, while only 25 nations, representing just 20% of global emissions, have submitted their NDCs so far, India’s plan will be key to testing its climate leadership and sustaining the goals of the Paris Agreement.
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